The Russian government has issued a stern warning against the spread of “hypotheses” regarding the cause of the tragic crash of an Azerbaijani Airlines passenger plane that claimed the lives of 38 people in Kazakhstan on Wednesday. The plane, en route to Russia, met a catastrophic end, raising concerns and prompting multiple theories about its demise, with one suggesting a possible strike by air defense systems over Chechnya.
The flight, an Embraer 190 aircraft, was initially scheduled to fly from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny in Chechnya. However, dense fog forced the aircraft to divert its route. After two failed attempts to land in Grozny, the plane was rerouted to Aktau, a city on the western coast of Kazakhstan, some 450 km (280 miles) away. Tragically, before reaching the airport, the plane plunged towards the ground at high speed, exploding upon impact.
While the aircraft’s wreckage showed signs of damage that some aviation experts believe could be linked to air defense missile detonation, the Russian government remains cautious. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that it would be irresponsible to speculate on the cause before the official investigation concludes. He reiterated that all information regarding the crash would be made public after the inquiry is completed, urging people to avoid premature conclusions.
Survivor’s Account and Conflicting Theories Surrounding the Crash
A passenger who survived the crash shared his account with Russian TV, stating that the pilot attempted to land several times in the thick fog before a mysterious explosion occurred, causing the plane’s fuselage to rupture. As the aircraft veered off course and made its final, tragic descent, emergency responders in Kazakhstan worked quickly to recover survivors from the wreckage.
Despite early reports from Russian state-controlled TV, which hinted at a possible bird strike as the primary cause of the crash, experts disagree. Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia pointed out that a bird strike, while dangerous, would not typically cause the severe deviations and rapid descent seen in this incident. “You can lose control of the plane, but you don’t fly wildly off course as a consequence,” he explained.
The notion that the plane may have been struck by an air defense missile, however, has gained traction. Justin Crump, an analyst from the risk advisory firm Sibylline, noted the distinctive shrapnel patterns observed in the wreckage, which he believes resemble the aftermath of an air defense missile explosion. The incident occurred amid reports of drone strikes in the region, raising further questions about the circumstances surrounding the crash.
Kazakhstan’s authorities have recovered the plane’s flight data recorder, which will play a critical role in the investigation. Meanwhile, officials from Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan have emphasized their commitment to transparency and the public’s right to know the full details of the crash. Maulen Ashimbayev, head of Kazakhstan’s Senate, stressed that no country involved would hide critical information.
Among the 67 people aboard, 29 survived, many of whom are being treated in hospitals, with 11 in intensive care. While the majority of passengers were Azerbaijani nationals, others from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan were also on board. Azerbaijan declared a national day of mourning for the victims, with President Ilham Aliyev expressing his deep sorrow for the loss of life.
As the investigation continues, the authorities urge the public to refrain from speculative theories and wait for the official findings. The tragic crash has left many questions unanswered, but the cooperation of all parties involved promises that the truth will eventually come to light.
